Programme economics
Calculate the actual contribution of an affiliate programme
Model net contribution, sustainable commission and break-even volume with explicit assumptions for orders, approval, margin and programme costs.
Before you begin
An affiliate programme can show growing sales while reducing profit. Attributed revenue is one part of the calculation: product or service costs, returns, commissions, platform fees and operations still matter. Use the same period and currency, and distinguish recorded, approved and paid orders.
This advertiser calculator is a simplified model. Every number is editable and illustrative. It does not forecast demand or incrementality and does not represent any provider’s commercial terms.
Editable assumptions
Test your margin before negotiating commission
Use the same period and currency for all amounts. Initial values demonstrate a calculation, not a provider offer.
1. Define the economic base
Net revenue per approved order should represent revenue retained by the business. Do not mix an order amount including sums collected for others with a commission base that excludes them. Specify delivery charges, discounts and adjustments. The margin percentage is measured before affiliate costs: it already includes the variable costs used to define that margin. Deducting them again would distort the result.
The calculator applies variable platform fees to net revenue. If your contract charges per click, conversion, partner or tier, translate the period cost explicitly or use a more detailed external model. Do not force a complex tariff into a misleading percentage.
2. Read the formulas and initial scenario
Expected approved orders = recorded orders × approval rate. Net revenue = approved orders × net revenue per order. Contribution = net revenue × (margin − commission − variable fees) − fixed costs.
The initial example records 100 orders with 90% approval, giving 90 expected approved orders. At €80 each, net revenue is €7,200. A 40% margin contributes €2,880 before affiliate costs; 10% commission costs €720; 2% fees cost €144; fixed costs are €500. Expected contribution is €1,516. These are model assumptions, not observed results.
3. Understand the commission limit
The rate at zero contribution is margin − variable fees − fixed costs / net revenue. Under the initial assumptions it is approximately 31.06%. This leaves no contribution and is therefore not a recommended commission. Set a minimum contribution requirement and allow for uncertainty, support, errors and returns.
When net revenue is zero, the limit cannot be calculated. A negative limit means even zero commission would not balance that period. The negative result remains visible rather than being disguised as an affordable rate.
4. Separate break-even from acquisition
The displayed threshold is the whole number of approved orders needed to cover fixed costs with unchanged unit economics. It is 23 in the initial example. This does not establish how many clicks, visits or leads to buy. Divide approved orders by the approval rate to estimate recorded orders; estimating traffic also requires a defined conversion rate.
When contribution per order is zero or negative, increasing volume cannot cover fixed costs in this model. The threshold is undefined and displayed as a dash rather than a fabricated number.
5. Test sensitivity before commitment
Change one assumption at a time. With everything else unchanged, 70% approval produces €1,068 contribution rather than €1,516 at 90%. Increasing commission from 10% to 15% at the original approval rate reduces contribution to €1,156. A single optimistic forecast hides that sensitivity.
Include operational time, setup and subscriptions in fixed costs for the same period. For annual commitments, document the allocation convention and retain the amount actually payable. Compare cautious, central and favourable scenarios.
6. Reconcile the model with actual records
At close, replace expectations with final approved orders and reconcile commissions against invoices and payments. Explain volume, approval, order value, margin and fee effects separately. Attributed contribution remains different from incremental contribution: some sales could have happened without the partner.
For a launch period, show one-off costs and the time required to recover them. Do not compare a first month including setup against a mature month without explaining the difference.
Practical answers
Questions to settle before signing
Why can expected orders contain decimals?
A rate multiplied by volume produces a theoretical average. Actual approved orders are whole numbers; use final records for reconciliation.
Does this replace ROAS?
It answers a different question: contribution after the costs explicitly included. ROAS compares revenue with advertising spend and can omit margin, commission and fixed costs.
Are my inputs transmitted?
No. This tool calculates in your browser and does not save the input fields.
Does positive contribution establish incrementality?
No. The calculation uses attributed revenue. Estimating what would have happened without the programme needs a separate test.
This guide is designed to help you ask better questions and organise a practical plan. It is educational and does not constitute legal, tax or financial advice. Platform rules, market conditions, technical capabilities and eligibility requirements can change, sometimes with little notice. Confirm material decisions with current official sources and, where the consequences matter, with qualified professionals who understand your market and organisation.